Political Economist & Founder, OpenAxis
Scholars of civil resistance generally define “success” as the overthrow of a government or territorial independence achieved because of a campaign within a year of its peak.
Among the 565 campaigns that have both begun and ended over the past 120 years, about 51 percent of the nonviolent campaigns have succeeded outright, while only about 26 percent of the violent ones have.
Nonviolent resistance thus outperforms violence by a 2-to-1 margin. (Sixteen percent of the nonviolent campaigns and 12 percent of violent ones ended in limited success, while 33 percent of nonviolent campaigns and 61 percent of violent ones ultimately failed.)
Moreover, in countries where civil-resistance campaigns took place, chances of democratic consolidation, periods of relative post-conflict stability, and various quality-of-life indicators were higher after the conflict than in the countries that experienced civil war.
Tenants priced out of their homes likely accounted for more than one-third of NYC rental inventory available in Q2, as landlords looked to make back what they offered in pandemic discounts.
As we look to the second half of 2022, renters should expect further increases in rents at least through this summer. NYC is rapidly adjusting to a new normal after the pandemic, but the rental market remains hampered by historically low inventory. Unusually tight rental market conditions suggest rents will continue to rise, at least until a seasonal slowdown in demand occurs for rentals after the summer.
Despite gradually improving inventory, asking rents are rising steeply as landlords seek to reverse pandemic-era discounts. Rental demand has remained strong as more people gradually return to the city after a jump in outbound migration during the pandemic. Disappearing rental concessions also suggest landlords remain confident about demand. Meanwhile, priced out of Manhattan, many renters are shifting their search to more affordable areas in Brooklyn and Queens.
With second-quarter GDP data due out Thursday, the question of whether the economy is in recession will be on everyone’s mind.
The economy stands at least a fair a chance of hitting the rule-of-thumb recession definition of two consecutive quarters with negative GDP readings.
The last two recessions were in 2020 and 2008-2009, as annotated in the chart above.
Should inflation stay at high levels, that then will trigger the biggest recession catalyst of all, namely Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said “we just don’t have” conditions consistent with a recession.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Top 6 most populous nations in 1960 were China, India, USA, Russia, Japan, and Indonesia for a combined population of 1,599,152,741. Sixty years later, the Top 6 are China, India, USA, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Brazil for a combined population of 3,853,217,936. And a recent UN report has projected that India will overtake China as the world's most populous nation in 2023.
Source: World Bank
In 2019, Black immigrant-headed households had a lower median income than U.S. immigrant-headed households overall, but a higher median income than households headed by members of the U.S.-born Black population. This pattern has persisted since 2000. That year, the overall immigrant household population’s median income was $58,600, while the Black immigrant household population’s median was $54,700 and the U.S.-born Black household population’s median was $42,500.
Source: Pew Research
In 2020, Black households had the lowest median household income of $45,870. In comparison, White households had a median household income of $74,912.